Recently, I sat down with the guys at Nowhere Plans to talk about the Emmy nominations, and this is the first in a series of articles is our thoughts and predictions on the nominees many of the major categories. This article was originally published and is reprinted with permission by Nowhere Plans.
by Jon Dimedio, Randy Dankievitch, and Mike Wilson
by Jon Dimedio (@jonnyd_)
Randy Dankievitch (@ProcessedMedia)
Mike Wilson (@MWilson10)
Part I: Outstanding Comedy/Drama Series
Part III: Outstanding Comedic Performances
Part IV: Outstanding Writing/Other Awards
Chance of Bryan Cranston not winning = 0.00001%.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
Damian Lewis (Homeland)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Jon
My Pick: Bryan Cranston
My Prediction: Bryan Cranston
Damian Lewis gave a hell of a performance, and though Walter White took a slight step back from the forefront of Breaking Bad’s focus, I just don’t see how anyone else winning could be justified.
Mike
My Pick: Bryan Cranston
My Prediction: Bryan Cranston
Bryan Cranston has won this award every year he has been nominated for portraying Walter White on Breaking Bad. Last year when the show was not eligible due to not airing within the time frame, Jon Hamm still could not win as Kyle Chandler took home the award for his work on Friday Night Lights. Don Draper is one of the television characters that will be remembered as one of the greatest characters ever but, unfortunately for Hamm, Walter White exists at the same time.
Damian Lewis may have an outside chance as he was outstanding alongside Claire Danes in Homeland. Michael C. Hall gets nominated again even though Dexter was terrible this season. Kelsey Grammer, Dustin Hoffman and Timothy Olyphant were all more deserving than Hall this time around. Grammer’s performance on Boss was one of my favorites and would have been my pick of the three. Hoffman’s Luck had no luck at all as it did not get a single nomination despite being extremely good and has been cancelled due to three horses dying on set in freak accidents. Olyphant was extremely good as well but with all of the other fantastic performances this year I think Emmy voters were justified in leaving him out.
Randy
My Pick: Bryan Cranston
My Prediction: Bryan Cranston
Is this even a competition? Jon Hamm and Damian Lewis might be able to claim second and third place, but the man behind Walter White’s glasses has kept Breaking Bad from completely falling off its wheels at times, with his layered and absolutely breath-taking performance of the man known as Heisenberg. Dexter sucks, but Michael C. Hall is still seen as cool in the eyes of Emmy voters, so go figure. I don’t think there’s a lot of discussion here, this is Cranston’s award to lose not only this year, but for the next two.
Could newcomer Claire Danes win the award from the other heavyweights in the category? We think so.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Glenn Close (Damages)
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law)
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
Jon
My Pick: Claire Danes
My Prediction: Claire Danes
I don’t often think about awards when I’m watching television, but while I was watching Homeland last year, I couldn’t help but think, “Wow, Claire Danes really deserves to win an award for what she is doing on this show.” Her portrayal of the bi-polar CIA agent Carrie is so convincing that it’s hard not to wonder if she has the condition herself. On screen she is both frantic, spontaneous and every scene she is in you can’t dare look away because she is so captivating and you may miss something.
Full disclosure, other than Mad Men (which I mentioned that I am catching up with earlier) I don’t watch any of the other shows.
Mike
My Pick: Claire Danes
My Prediction: Claire Danes
Claire Danes in a runaway. This would be the biggest shocker to me if Danes does not win. Elisabeth Moss is fantastic and Julianna Margulies won last year but Danes’ performance in Homeland may have been the best performance on television, period.
Randy
My Pick: Claire Danes
My Prediction: Claire Danes
There’s no woman on television more deserving of this award than Claire Danes, who put in an extraordinary performance on Homeland as Carrie, the unstable, passionate CIA agent. This is another close-and-shut category because thankfully, the best performance is nominated. I don’t think its close between her and second place, which would probably be Elisabeth Moss, although this category is noticeably lacking in the high-rate performances we expected of award nominees (Kathy Bates, really?)
Will Dinklage go back to back? He certainly could, but we don’t think so.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad)
Brendan Coyle (Downton Abbey)
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Jared Harris (Mad Men)
John
My Pick: Aaron Paul
My Prediction: Aaron Paul
This is tough. I thought Dinklage was absolutely brilliant again this year, but whose to say if I just love the Imp so much that I’m biased? I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t win again, but to me, Aaron Paul had the best year of any of the nominees. Jesse Pinkman went through a lot this fourth season and spent less time moping than in any of the seasons past. We really got to see a lot of character development and it was all so well done, that I think it’d honestly be a snub if he didn’t win here. Though Dinklage winning would be a fine consolation. Giancarlo is a darkhorse candidate here, playing the mastermind Gus Fring, but I think like in the show, Jesse Pinkman will come out on top.
Mike
My Pick: Giancarlo Esposito
My Prediction: Aaron Paul
This is an extremely difficult category. Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage are much more lead actors than they are supporting actors which make them really tough to beat here. Dinklage was the winner last year but that was in a year where Breaking Bad was not eligible. He was also better in season two of Game of Thrones with more screen time than he had in season one so I would not be surprised or disappointed if he repeats. Aaron Paul’s Jesse is one of my favorite characters so it is extremely difficult for me to pick against him but Gus Fring had so many outstanding moments that I have to go with Esposito. From “Boxcutter” to the flashbacks to walking down sniper fire to the haunting scene in the finale I’m not sure there is a character that had more moments that are burnt into my mind than Gus Fring.
One drawback of being such a stacked category is that someone has to be left out. In this case, Jared Harris takes the only Mad Men nomination over John Slattery. Slattery had one of his best seasons this year, especially in “Far Away Places” which has been nominated for Writing in a Drama. Harris is deserving as well and had a lot of important moments this season so I wouldn’t have put Slattery in over him. I would have replaced one of the Downton Abbey actors with Slattery if I had a vote.
Randy
My Pick: Aaron Paul
My Prediction: Aaron Paul
In Breaking Bad‘s fourth season, one of the show’s overarching characterizations came to fruition as Jesse Pinkman became the good guy on Breaking Bad – a crazy notion considering he committed murder at the end of season three. But once the game between Gus and Walt began to play out, it really became clear who the emotional core of the show was, and Aaron Paul ran wild with it. This category isn’t an absolute landslide – Peter Dinklage continues to do terrific work on Game of Thrones, but it’s partly due to his character, and not always the performance itself. I’ve got to go with Jesse Pinkman, whose transformation from poser drug addict to the show’s only remaining fragment of morality is one of my favorite things to watch on TV.
Another unanimous prediction, but not necessarily our personal choices.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)
Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife)
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
John
My Pick: Anna Gunn
My Prediction: Christina Hendricks
I can’t call this category. If they can’t even nominate one of Morena Baccarin (of Firefly, but more recently Jessica Brody in Homeland), Michelle Fairley (Catelyn Stark of Game of Thrones) or Lena Headey (Cersei Lannister of Game of Thrones) then I’m not sure what is going through the voters’ heads. Gun to my head, I guess Christina Hendricks is the biggest name here so I wouldn’t be surprised if she won, Anna Gunn had some great scenes this past year on Breaking Bad, so I’ll just root for her.
Mike
My Pick: Christina Hendricks
My Prediction: Christina Hendricks
Hendricks performances in “Christmas Waltz” and “The Other Woman” should carry her to the win here. “The Other Woman” is a fantastic episode and Hendricks was great in it. Anna Gunn could pull out the win if it is possible for Breaking Bad to get even more love than usual from Emmy voters. This also could be the category where Downton Abbey gets a win out of all of its nominations.
Randy
My Pick: Melissa Leo (Treme)
My Prediction: Christina Hendricks
I don’t even know who to pick in this group, which is an under-representation of the great supporting roles women have on dramatic television today. Anna Gunn’s deserved a nomination since Deadwood, and the other spots seemed to be filled by the most popular female characters on perennial dramatic contenders.
For me, the best actresses aren’t even nominated: Melissa Leo and Khandi Alexander are two heavyweight champs over on one of TV’s most overlooked shows, Treme, and the fact neither of them are nominated completely turns me off from the category – really, it’s a joke neither of them are even being considered for the award. A season of Antoinette dealing with her husband’s murder and a new messed up case with the police, combined with LaDonna’s struggle to gain back normalcy in her life after her brother’s death and a brutal incident in her own bar, were the best one-two combination of powerful dramatic female performances on television.
